Trump isn’t sending troops to cities with highest crime charges, knowledge exhibits – Solar Sentinel

By Amanda Watford, Stateline

President Donald Trump has argued that he must deploy Nationwide Guard troops throughout state traces to guard federal personnel and property or to assist overwhelmed native legislation enforcement in cities he claims are “overrun” by crime.

However a Stateline evaluation of U.S. Census Bureau and federal crime knowledge exhibits that Trump’s deployments and proposals haven’t centered on the nation’s most violent cities. Of the ten cities inhabitants 250,000 or extra with the best violent crime charges, Trump has despatched Nationwide Guard troops to only one: Memphis, Tennessee.

He has proposed motion in simply three different top-10 cities: Oakland, California; Baltimore; and St. Louis. All, together with Memphis, are Democratic-led cities.

A number of different cities with excessive violent crime charges — together with Milwaukee; Albuquerque, New Mexico; and Minneapolis — are also led by Democrats however haven’t been focused. Two different Democratic-led cities with excessive violent crime charges, Cleveland and Kansas Metropolis, Missouri, are in states with Republican governors and likewise haven’t been focused.

As an alternative, the administration has directed extra consideration towards bigger, Democratic-run cities in Democratic-led states reminiscent of Chicago, Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon, together with Washington, D.C., the place violent crime charges are decrease than in lots of different main cities.

In current months, Trump has pledged robust federal intervention in a number of cities if, he claims, native officers fail to revive order.

Critics, together with Democratic governors and mayors, have challenged his rationale in court docket, arguing that deployments exceed the president’s authority and undermine native management.

Federal courts have issued orders halting troop deployments in a number of cities whereas authorized challenges proceed. Most not too long ago, deployments have been blocked in Chicago and Portland. The Trump administration is interesting these rulings.

Trump additionally has advised deploying troops to New York Metropolis and San Francisco.

Stateline’s knowledge evaluation exhibits violent crime has fallen sharply throughout the USA, together with important drops in some cities that Trump is threatening with army motion.

Some crime consultants query whether or not a heightened legislation enforcement or army presence in main cities could have a long-lasting influence on crime.

“In the long run, this may’t actually be good for public security,” mentioned Nancy La Vigne, a legal justice researcher and dean of the Faculty of Legal Justice at Rutgers College. La Vigne added that crime could decline within the cities the place the Guard is deployed, however that it’s going to possible be an “synthetic suppression of crime” as a result of potential victims could keep away from downtown areas — an impact that would fade over time.

Violent crime is down

Some Republican governors have welcomed federal assist. Tennessee Republican Gov. Invoice Lee endorsed the usage of Guard troops in Memphis as a part of a brand new citywide anti-crime job power.

Louisiana Republican Gov. Jeff Landry has requested federal funding to activate as much as 1,000 Guard members statewide, citing “elevated violent crime charges” in Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Shreveport. Landry additionally pointed to crucial staffing shortages in native legislation enforcement.

In response to native police knowledge by Sept. 6 of this 12 months, nonetheless, violent crime in New Orleans shouldn’t be elevated. It has fallen 16%, with homicides down 20% and property crimes additionally down 20% in contrast with the identical interval in 2024.

Likewise in Baton Rouge, each the general violent crime charge and the murder charge declined between 2023 and 2024, falling under 2019 ranges, based on a Stateline evaluation.

In Shreveport, the general violent crime charge elevated between 2023 and 2024, whereas the murder charge fell. Each charges stay greater than in 2019.

The cities with populations of 250,000 or extra with the best violent crime charges have been, so as: Memphis, Oakland, Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas Metropolis, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Albuquerque and Minneapolis, based on Stateline’s evaluation of FBI knowledge.

Out there nationwide crime knowledge exhibits that each violent and property crime proceed to say no nationwide. These broad nationwide tendencies, nonetheless, don’t imply each group is experiencing much less crime. Some cities and neighborhoods are nonetheless seeing greater charges of sure offenses.

In response to the Actual-Time Crime Index — a free device that collects crime knowledge from greater than 500 legislation enforcement companies — violent crime nationwide was 10.7% decrease between January and July 2025 than throughout the identical interval the earlier 12 months, with homicides down 20% and property crime down 12.4%.

The nonpartisan suppose tank Council on Legal Justice’s most up-to-date crime tendencies report exhibits declines in homicides, gun assaults and carjackings throughout 42 main cities within the first half of 2025 in contrast with the identical interval in 2024. The report exhibits will increase in murder throughout 5 cities.

Though the FBI’s findings are a 12 months behind, they align with these numbers. The FBI’s 2024 report, launched earlier this 12 months, confirmed that violent crime fell 4.5% and property crime dropped 8.1% nationally in contrast with the earlier 12 months. Homicides alone declined by practically 15%.

These enhancements mark a continued reversal of the pandemic-era surge in violence, when homicides rose practically 30% in 2020 — one of many largest single-year will increase in U.S. historical past.

However the tempo and path of these declines differ broadly from metropolis to metropolis, and public notion of crime usually diverges from what the information exhibits.

Metropolis-by-city particulars

Nationally, violent and property crime have fallen sharply since peaking within the Nineteen Nineties — a development mirrored in most cities, together with the 5 the place Trump has deployed or sought to deploy the Nationwide Guard.

There could also be variations between nationwide figures and native police knowledge due to variations in knowledge assortment strategies and the way crimes are outlined.

In Washington, D.C., the place the variety of reported homicides spiked in 2023, homicides declined by 32% in 2024. The murder charge fell from 39 per 100,000 residents in 2023, to 26 in 2024, based on a Stateline evaluation of FBI crime knowledge.

Native police knowledge exhibits that, as of Oct. 15, 2025, homicides are down 25% from final 12 months, together with declines in each different main crime class, together with property crime.

Los Angeles recorded related declines between 2023 and 2024 throughout practically all crime sorts, aside from arson, which rose from 179 reported incidents to 410, based on a Stateline evaluation. Nonetheless, general violent and property crime fell throughout that interval. Town’s murder charge dropped barely from 8 per 100,000 residents in 2023 to 7 in 2024.

Los Angeles ranks No. 32 nationally in violent crime amongst cities with populations over 250,000. FBI knowledge exhibits a charge of 728 incidents per 100,000 residents, whereas a Stateline evaluation utilizing U.S. Census Bureau inhabitants estimates from Might exhibits a barely decrease charge of 715 incidents per 100,000 residents.

As of Oct. 4, 2025, knowledge maintained by the Los Angeles Police Division exhibits violent crime down 16% and property crime down about 18% in contrast with the identical interval final 12 months.

Memphis additionally reported decreases in most main crime classes between 2023 and 2024, although aggravated assaults elevated barely, based on a Stateline evaluation. Town’s murder charge fell from 57 to 40 per 100,000 residents throughout that very same interval.

In 2024, Memphis recorded the best violent crime charge amongst main U.S. cities with populations over 250,000 — 2,501 incidents per 100,000 residents, based on FBI knowledge. A Stateline evaluation utilizing U.S. Census Bureau inhabitants estimates from Might present a barely greater violent crime charge of two,515 reported incidents per 100,000 residents.

Native police knowledge exhibits homicides in the course of the first eight months of 2025 are at a six-year low in contrast with the identical interval in earlier years, and general crime is at a 25-year low.

Chicago, in contrast, recorded will increase in rape, aggravated assault, housebreaking and larceny-theft between 2023 and 2024, based on a Stateline evaluation.

Whereas the general violent crime charge was decrease in 2024 than in 2023, the property crime charge rose barely. The murder charge declined modestly from 18 to 17 per 100,000 residents. As of Oct. 12, 2025, general reported crime is down 13% from the identical interval final 12 months, and murders are down 28%, based on native police knowledge.

In Portland, most main crime classes fell between 2023 and 2024, although larceny-theft and aggravated assault rose, based on a Stateline evaluation. Total violent and property crime charges have been decrease in 2024 than in 2023, and the murder charge declined barely from about 12 to 11 per 100,000 residents.

Between January and August 2025, in contrast with the identical interval in 2024, whole crime has remained largely unchanged, based on the Portland Police Bureau’s crime statistics dashboard. Nonetheless, reported violent crimes are up 3%, property crime is down 4% and “society” crimes reminiscent of prostitution and drug offenses have elevated considerably.

Public notion of crime

Regardless of nationwide declines in violent and property crime, most People consider crime is getting worse.

A Gallup ballot carried out in October 2024 discovered that 64% of adults thought crime had elevated nationally in contrast with the earlier 12 months, whereas 49% mentioned there was extra crime of their native space. A more moderen ballot from March discovered that 75% of adults fear about crime both a good quantity or an important deal.

Criminologists and researchers level to a number of components behind the hole between public notion and precise crime tendencies. Political rhetoric and media protection usually emphasize violent incidents, and deceptive interpretations of crime knowledge can reinforce concern.

“We stay in a society now the place individuals need data and don’t wish to take the time to cease and suppose, and to additionally seek the advice of various viewpoints,” mentioned Alex Piquero, a criminology professor on the College of Miami and former director of the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Crime statistics are notoriously tough to trace and perceive, partly as a result of a lot of the information lags behind real-time occasions. Totally different sources may present totally different tendencies, relying on how the data is collected.

For instance, FBI knowledge depends on voluntary reviews from police departments, which can not seize all crimes, whereas the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ victimization survey excludes murder and relies on respondents’ experiences within the six months previous to the survey moderately than the 12 months it’s launched. These variations make it difficult for the general public to get a transparent, up-to-date image of crime of their communities.

Public notion is additional formed by seen indicators of dysfunction, reminiscent of graffiti, deserted buildings or homeless encampments, based on consultants.

Individuals additionally have a tendency to recollect private anecdotes or information tales that resonate emotionally, moderately than summary statistics. Consultants say that this dynamic could be exploited in political messaging, creating a way of non-public danger even when general crime is declining.

“Crime is form of a kind of issues that doesn’t go away within the information cycle as a result of it’s related to individuals on a day in and day trip foundation,” Piquero informed Stateline.

Legislation enforcement presence

Ramped-up police and Nationwide Guard patrols in cities nationwide have sparked debate over whether or not such deployments are efficient at curbing crime or principally function a present of power.

Analysis means that police and army presence have an effect on crime in very other ways. Focused policing in high-crime “scorching spots” reduces crime in these areas, based on consultants.

“Police are one a part of an general crime prevention technique, and they’re very efficient at disrupting what we name ‘scorching spots,’” Piquero mentioned.